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Diesels set to out-strip hybrids in
accelerating US growth
(24/05/2007)
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With US regulators looking to revise fuel
economy standards amid concerns for energy security and greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, research published today by UBS and Ricardo points to
combined annual diesel and hybrid gasoline vehicle sales in the US of
2.7 million by 2012. The Ricardo/UBS research report “Is Diesel set
to boom in the US?” sets out the legislative and consumer drivers
of engine technology for the North American automotive market over the
coming decade, as well as the many candidate technologies available for
future vehicle products.
At present, hybrid
gasoline technology appears to be the preferred route in the US, not
least due to its attraction as a visible badge of green awareness
amongst higher income purchasers. Many OEMs plan to launch hybrid
products in the next few years, but the report highlights that this
technology faces substantial manufacturing cost penalties which are
unlikely to be eroded even in mass production. Diesel has a clear cost
advantage over hybrid, even when fitted with the type of complex exhaust
after-treatment technologies necessary to meet future, more stringent
emissions regulations.
Diesel already
dominates in Europe. The conditions may now be right for a big
acceleration in diesel sales in the North American market. Ricardo
forecasts that combined diesel and hybrid gasoline will represent 15 per
cent of the US light vehicle market by 2012, with sales of diesels
outstripping gasoline hybrids by 1.5 million units versus 1.2 million.
UBS highlights that European automakers and a number of global suppliers
look set to benefit from the diesel trend. |
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